Picking up on John Battelle’s concept of the database of intentions, I was thinking yesterday about where Google and its rivals will eventually end up in the business world. All the major search portals are adding new features everyday, and acquiring new companies in a race to become the most sought after site on the Internet. This basic model is what you’d expect, because more visitors and more users means more advertising revenue. However, advertising seems like it could eventually become just a side business for the giants of search, a stopping off point in their development.
There are a number of things happening, which lead me to the conclusion that search advertising, while a lucrative business, is really just the beginning of something huge. I haven?t read Battelle?s book just yet, but I believe that his thesis is similar. According to Battelle the database of intentions is, ?The aggregate results of every search ever entered, every result list ever tendered, and every path taken as a result.?
Google stores everything that it possibly can store about its users, and if you use Gmail, Google stores and scans all your most personal information as well. When properly analyzed, all this data reveals what people are interested in at a particular moment in time. This includes their wishes, desires, passions, fears, everything. All other databases and information sources are being made public domain by the big search companies, but the one database that they are all keeping to themselves is this one precious database, or at least their piece of it.
These companies covet their precious piece of the pie, because with this database of intentions they can predict markets and make the right business decisions with a much higher accuracy than ever before. The possibilities of what might come out of this database have only just begun to be explored. Right now, Google, Yahoo, MSN, and AOL talk about targeting advertising to their users, so that results are more relevant. Come on, really, is that all you?ve got?
How about advising Wall Street on where the markets are headed. A 1% improvement in accurately predicting financial markets would net billions, maybe trillions a year in revenue. It would make all Internet advertising revenue look like chump change. It?s only a theory, but it seems that capturing and analyzing this database of intentions might just make some of the fickleness and eccentricities of freewill a little predictable, at least to the extent that the weather is predictable.
The basic scenario that I am thinking of is that Google Labs: Wall Street sends daily data on market directions and consumer interests to the businesses involved in these markets. In this way, the business managers and investors will have a virtual weather report on what is coming in the next day or week, and they?ll know whether to bring an umbrella.
It?s a far out concept for now, but I think that in the near future it will start becoming much more real. There are some scary implications for the future, as the world’s knowledge is slowly consolidated into a few hands. For now it?s anyone?s game and the owner?s of the database of intention seem to be a bunch of fairly well intentioned geeks.
It will be interesting to see what happens when these well intentioned geeks have the power to make and break world markets, industries, etc.